War with Georgia heating up for August

War with Georgia is about to begin.

True that no shots have been fired, yet, but the media blitz which precedes the actual firing of weapons in this modern age has already begun. As whisperings of justification for war become more frequent it’s obvious that something is afoot.

It’s no longer only a whisper. This morning the Moscow Times newspaper reported that Georgia’s breakaway republic Abkhazia is accusing Georgia of sending spy drones over the republic and of course the Georgian government in Tbilisi is denying the charges.

Somebody is telling the truth however, because there are spy drones in the area according to reports. Sources close to the ground say they’re not Georgian. Abkhazia has no airforce and Russia provides it’s security. You can do the math for yourself.

Moscow is well aware that Washington has no interest in backing Georgia in a drive to reclaim Abkhazia. Moscow also knows that a weakened Georgia is in no shape to mount an offensive to win back a region claimed by Russia, backed by Russia, recognized as a nation by Russia, and occupied by Russian “peace keeping” troops.

There is a Russian military buildup going on now along the border and a weakened Georgia has a lot to fear. Moscow is betting that Washington has no interest in defending and propping up the Georgian government. Understandably the Kremlin believes it has nothing to fear either.

The last war was just a year ago in August. August will be here soon and were we gamblers, we’d be betting on lots of fireworks in early August. Georgia said any drone flights would have been Russian-operated. “No Georgian drones flew over Abkhazia or South Ossetian territories, so we categorically deny these accusations,” said Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili.

If you think the response from the West was tepid at best last year, wait until this August. For Russia, this aggression will be a cake walk.

August in Georgia should be unseasonably hot this year.

~ by mendeleyev on 10/07/2009.